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	<title>Foviance &#187; Predictive analytics</title>
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	<link>http://www.foviance.com</link>
	<description>Foviance is a ground-breaking customer experience consultancy, providing usability consulting services, web analytics, user experience and accessibility consultancy in London, UK.</description>
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		<title>Conference season lead the change</title>
		<link>http://www.foviance.com/what-we-think/conference-season-lead-the-change/</link>
		<comments>http://www.foviance.com/what-we-think/conference-season-lead-the-change/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Apr 2009 16:15:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Neil Mason</dc:creator>
		
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.foviance.com/?p=4918</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The theme of the conference was "Lead the Change" and was kicked off with a keynote session... ]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This article, written by Neil Mason, was originally published on Clickz.com and is republished here with permission.<a href="http://www.clickz.com"><img class="alignleft" style="padding: 5px 0pt 0pt 0pt;" title="ClickZ logo" src="http://www.foviance.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/logo_clickz.gif" alt="ClickZ logo" width="192" height="57" /></a></p>
<p>The first sign of spring is the beginning of the conference season and it kicked off for me this week when <a href="http://www.foviance.com/who-we-help/strategic-partners/omniture/" target="_self">Omniture</a> came to town hosting their European Summit in London. Around a 1,000 people from across Europe gathered together last Tuesday to listen to what one of the largest marketing technologies companies had to say. <span id="more-4918"></span></p>
<p>The theme of the conference was &#8220;Lead the Change&#8221; and was kicked off with a keynote session from Josh James, Omniture&#8217;s co-founder and CEO. I wasn&#8217;t at the Omniture Summit in Salt Lake City but I assume that the message was the same. James asserted that prospects were still good for our industry even in these difficult times. &#8220;Technology is no respecter of the economy&#8221; he told us and outlined the potential based on the fact that &#8220;less than 10% of transactions are being optimised&#8221;. A number of product announcements were made in the keynote including the introduction of the Omniture marketing suite into Europe, the launch of Omniture Recommendations, new reporting capabilities in Site Catalyst for measuring how viral videos are and the integration with 24/7&#8242;s Open AdStream. Much was made also about Omniture&#8217;s partnership with WPP and James interviewed Mark Read, the head of WPP Digital. Read stressed the importance of digital to WPP these days (accounting for over 25% of business) and it was interesting to hear that WPP&#8217;s digital priorities were around social media, mobile and analytics.</p>
<p>My sense of progress from the opening sessions was it was more evolutionary than revolutionary. There was talk about the impact that social media and mobile would be having on the way that consumers and marketers interact and there were announcements of new measurement capabilities in those areas. There were also hints that there would be more focus on improving measurement capabilities on content and lead generation sites in the future. There was also talk about more activity on integration, including the integration of SearchCentre (their keyword bid management) tool and Test an Target (their multi-variate testing tool), as well as more concentration on Developer Connection and their data integration capability, Genesis. So for me the start of the conference painted a picture of consolidation and amalgamation which is perhaps not surprising given the expansive and acquisitive nature of the company over the past 2 years.</p>
<p>Ed Thompson from Gartner Group gave an interesting and wide ranging presentation. After talking about the shifts in the CRM space from operational CRM to analytical and collaborative CRM strategies, he focused on talking about customer experience management. He highlighted the trend for companies to look to differentiate themselves through the customer experience but identified some of the major challenges facing those companies. First of all customers are becoming more powerful, secondly no-one in those companies &#8220;owns&#8221; the customer and thirdly, on the whole, employees don&#8217;t care. So the challenge is to find someone who &#8220;cares about customers&#8221; in the company and then to put the right measurement frameworks in place. Thompson also offered an interesting insight based on his analysis on the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI). He looked at the profile of the companies with the highest customer satisfaction scores. They were food companies, internet companies and the like. From this he came to the view that most of the companies with good customer satisfaction scores didn&#8217;t actually deal directly with customers. &#8220;Humans screw up the customer experience&#8221; he said and warned companies not to confuse customer intimacy with good customer experience. I guess that underpins the need to get the web experience right as often people don&#8217;t want to deal with other people, they just want to get the job done.</p>
<p>I took the opportunity to take in a few presentations from the social media track at the Summit, covering aspects such as mobile and video measurement. Greg Dowling from Nokia summed it up for me when he said &#8220;mobile measurement is hard&#8221;. Many issues such as the proliferation of devices and browser, the lack of industry standards, problems with visitor identification combines to create a number of different measurement challenges. It reminded me of the web analytics world about 8 or 9 years ago. Matthew Langie from Omniture outlined a mobile analytics &#8220;maturity model&#8221; which starts by measuring the mobile opportunity through to profile based targeting. I think for most companies measuring the opportunity is about as good as it gets at the moment.</p>
<p>Later this week I head out to the West Coast to get another dose of conference input at the Emetrics <a href="http://www.emetrics.org/sanjose" target="_self">Marketing Optimisation Summit in San Jose</a> where I&#8217;ll present on predictive analytics, May 4. I&#8217;ll give you a round up on that one next time.</p>
<p>.</p>
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		<title>Predictive analytics: A blend of art and science?</title>
		<link>http://www.foviance.com/what-we-think/predictive-analytics-a-blend-of-art-and-science/</link>
		<comments>http://www.foviance.com/what-we-think/predictive-analytics-a-blend-of-art-and-science/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Feb 2009 10:16:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Neil Mason</dc:creator>
		
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.foviance.com/?p=3242</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Data mining and predictive analytics "Super Crunchers" by Ian Ayres...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This article, written by Neil Mason, was originally published on Clickz.com and is republished here with permission.<a href="http://www.clickz.com"><img class="alignleft" style="padding: 5px 0pt 0pt 0pt;" title="ClickZ logo" src="http://www.foviance.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/logo_clickz.gif" alt="ClickZ logo" width="192" height="57" /></a></p>
<p>I have just been reading a booked called &#8220;Super Crunchers&#8221; by Ian Ayres. It&#8217;s an interesting book on how the use of data mining and predictive analytics is becoming more widespread across all aspects of our societies, and is increasingly shaping our lives. He cites a number of different examples where these empirical approaches are able to outperform human experts in their ability to accurately predict the likely outcomes.</p>
<p>I particularly liked his story of an econometrician who was able to predict the expected quality of Bordeaux wine based on a simple regression analysis of weather data. He was able to predict the expected quality of a particular vintage based on just three variables; the amount of rainfall in the winter, the amount of rainfall during the harvest and the average temperature during the growing season. What was interesting for me was not the fact that he was able to make these predictions, but the accounts of the resistance and even hostility that he got from the &#8220;wine establishment&#8221; for his predictions. The wine experts of the time were very threatened and affronted by the fact that their &#8220;art&#8221; and &#8220;expertise&#8221; could be reduced to a simple equation.</p>
<p>Ayers goes on to give a number of other examples in various industries where the growth of data and technology has allowed data mining and predictive analytical techniques to change the rules of the game, from baseball scouting to social policy development and medicine. Quite often in each of these fields there has been resistance to the ascendency to the use of these techniques from the established experts in that field, such as baseball scouts, policy makers, doctors and so on. They would not, or could not accept that such empirical methods could be better than the expertise they had developed over years of training and experience. However numerous studies cited by Ayers have shown that predictive analytics outperforms &#8220;experts&#8221; in the ability to predict an outcome correctly. That doesn&#8217;t mean that predictive techniques always get it right just that they get it right more often than the experts.</p>
<p>In the digital marketing field Ayers uses the example of A/B and Multi-Variate Testing (MVT). The point he makes is that the volume of data and the technology, now allows people to run repeated tests and trials to predict which versions of which element on a page is most likely to be successful in driving the desired outcome. Those of you familiar with the MVT technologies will know that the marketing stance behind them is often that they eliminate the need for subjectivity in the design process. You just come up with some alternative versions and see which one works best. It&#8217;s the ultimate tool for overcoming bias and subjectivity of the various stakeholders involved in site development. Who needs usability testing, right?</p>
<p>Ayers&#8217; background is not as a statistician or an analyst but as a lawyer. You don&#8217;t immediately think of lawyers as being masters of the empirical universe and why would a lawyer be an expert in number crunching? The interesting point being a lawyer could be similar to being an analyst. Often you are trying to prove or disprove a hypothesis and looking for the appropriate evidence to support your theory or disproves somebody else&#8217;s and, for me, this gives rise to one of the fallacies about econometrics and predictive analytics that it is purely a scientific discipline.</p>
<p>Predictive analytics is often as much about art as it is about science. To build a good model you need to have a good understanding of the way that the &#8220;system&#8221; you are trying to model works. More often than not, at the beginning of the model building process, there is some subjective opinion about what are going to be the likely factors influencing the thing that you are trying to predict. So where do these opinions come from? They usually come from the people who are knowledgeable or experts in that particular field. We sometimes called this the &#8220;domain expertise&#8221;. If we take the example of the econometrician predicting the quality of wine, the econometrician was also a wine buff so he had some previous knowledge about what the likely factors were that could potentially affect the quality of a particular vintage. His skill was in quantifying it.</p>
<p>In the same way, some domain expertise is needed in the development of good tests. If we look at MVT then the technology can help you determine which the best page design to use is. If you test 4 different versions of an element (say a call to action), then you will get a winner. That &#8220;winner&#8221; may be the one that you started out with, but it&#8217;s still the winner. It doesn&#8217;t mean though that it&#8217;s the best one, it&#8217;s just the one that was best out of the various options that you looked at. There may be a much better option out there which you haven&#8217;t tested. Usability experts can potentially provide better insights into what versions are the best ones to test in the first place, and also help to understand why the results have come out the way that they have.</p>
<p>So we need the experts to help us build better models. That expertise may come from years of experience or knowledge gained from understanding the effectiveness of previous models. In either case, there&#8217;s room for both the science and the art.</p>
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		<title>Applied Insights moves on</title>
		<link>http://www.foviance.com/what-we-think/applied-insights-moves-on/</link>
		<comments>http://www.foviance.com/what-we-think/applied-insights-moves-on/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Nov 2008 23:46:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Neil Mason</dc:creator>
		
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.applied-insights.co.uk/news/2008/11/06/applied-insights-moves-on/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It's been a busy couple of weeks! Over the past few days we have been completing the transaction by which Foviance has acquired the business assets and brand of Applied Insights. I have joined Foviance as Director of Analytical Consulting and will be taking a seat on the Foviance Board...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>This post originally appeared on Applied Insights&#8217; blog. Foviance acquired Applied Insights in November 2008, with Neil Mason joining us as Director of <a title="Predictive analytics and web analytics consulting" href="/what-we-do/web-analytics-consulting/">Analytical Consulting</a>. As part of this acquisition, we&#8217;ve incorporated Applied Insights&#8217; blog into our own.</p></blockquote>
<p>It&#8217;s been a busy couple of weeks! Over the past few days we have been completing the transaction by which <a title="Foviance" href="http://www.foviance.com/">Foviance</a> has acquired the business assets and brand of Applied Insights. I have joined Foviance as Director of Analytical Consulting and will be taking a seat on the Foviance Board. John is pursuing his own consultancy activities and will continue to work with us in the future. You can see the official press release <a href="/what-we-think/foviance-acquires-applied-insights-press-release/">here</a>.</p>
<h2>So what&#8217;s the background and what does all this mean?</h2>
<p>Well, I&#8217;ve known the guys at Foviance for some time. We have and have had many common clients. Foviance is an excellent company and has a strong reputation in the market for customer experience consulting. They have been aware for some time that data, analytics and insight are critical to understanding the user experience and getting it right. The acquisition of an analytics consultancy like Applied Insights is a natural move in terms of developing the overall proposition. I&#8217;m delighted to be joining them and although it&#8217;s been less than a week, it feels good. One of the reasons why the fit with Foviance feels right is because we have common values and beliefs about what &#8220;good&#8221; looks like.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m heading up the analytics consulting team which is called Foviance Applied Insights. Maybe not a totally original name but &#8220;it does what it says on the tin&#8221;! In the team I will be bringing together the existing analytical capabilities of Foviance and Applied Insights and will be scaling and expanding our services over the coming months. In addition to Applied Insights core competencies in strategic analytics consulting, customer analytics, predictive analytics and optimisation we will be growing the <a title="Foviance web analytics consulting" href="http://www.foviance.com/what-we-do/web-analytics-consulting" target="_self">existing capabilities</a> within the Foviance team in web analytics consulting and developing our services around some of the core technologies out there such as Omniture, Google Analytics and others. It&#8217;s going to remain busy!</p>
<p>For me this is a really exciting move. With a core team in place and with the Foviance infrastructure behind us I&#8217;m looking forward to extending our capabilities, developing our ideas and continuing to offer quality consulting services and products. Look out for news either on this blog or on the main Foviance site.</p>
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		<title>Foviance Acquires Applied Insights</title>
		<link>http://www.foviance.com/what-we-think/foviance-acquires-applied-insights/</link>
		<comments>http://www.foviance.com/what-we-think/foviance-acquires-applied-insights/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Nov 2008 17:10:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Neil Mason</dc:creator>
		
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.applied-insights.co.uk/news/2008/11/05/foviance-acquires-applied-insights/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Foviance, the expert in digital customer experience, today announced the completion of its acquisition of Applied Insights, a leading provider of analytical consulting solutions to blue chip businesses...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>This post originally appeared on Applied Insights&#8217; blog. Foviance acquired Applied Insights in November 2008, with Neil Mason joining us as Director of <a title="Predictive analytics and web analytics consulting" href="/what-we-do/web-analytics-consulting/">Analytical Consulting</a>. As part of this acquisition, we&#8217;ve incorporated Applied Insights&#8217; blog into our own.</p></blockquote>
<p>London, UK, 6 November 2008 &#8211; Foviance, the expert in digital customer experience, today announced the completion of its acquisition of Applied Insights, a leading provider of analytical consulting solutions to blue chip businesses. The acquisition will accelerate the development of Foviance&#8217;s technology agnostic analytics division and supports Foviance&#8217;s strategy to provide a comprehensive customer experience solution to its global customer base.</p>
<p>The acquisition brings Applied Insight&#8217;s director and co-founder Neil Mason to the Foviance team as director of analytical consulting. With his vast experience, he will serve on Foviance&#8217;s board of directors and lead the company&#8217;s new initiative and analytical consulting practice. Mr. Mason is a renowned industry figure and brings Applied Insights best practices of predictive analytics, optimisation and measuring digital marketing effectiveness to Foviance. He also brings with him Applied Insights existing blue chip client base which includes Barclays, BP and Total Jobs and he will have a pivotal role in developing further Foviance&#8217;s strategic partners such as Omniture and Google.</p>
<p>Neil Mason joins Foviance with 25 years of in-depth industry experience in marketing analytics and strategy. Prior to founding Applied Insights, Mr. Mason has worked in a number of senior leadership roles for many major companies including QXL ricardo and Research International UK. He also currently serves on the board of directors of the Web Analytics Association, the global industry body for digital analytics professionals.</p>
<p>&#8220;The combination of Foviance&#8217;s expertise in delivering seamless cross-channel experiences with Applied Insight&#8217;s leadership in understanding data analytics, is ideal for our customers, both in providing innovative services and optimising usability and conversion rates&#8221; said Paul Blunden, CEO, Foviance. &#8220;Our combined global customer base now has a partner with proven expertise to deliver a strong blend of business, analytical and technology consulting capabilities.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8220;Many e-businesses are looking to improve their online performance but are not clear about what they should be measuring or how to measure it effectively, our merger with Foviance presents us with an incredible opportunity to improve the digital usability experience for businesses globally,&#8221; said Neil Mason, director of analytical consulting, Foviance.</p>
<h2>About Foviance</h2>
<p>Foviance is a leading customer experience consultancy that works globally with some of the world&#8217;s best known brands to deliver measurable improvements in performance. .</p>
<p>Founded in 2001 and with a heritage in website usability and data analytics, Foviance delivers consultancy to its clients about the effectiveness of their individual channels, such as mobile, web and call centre and how they combine in a cross-channel environment. For many clients, insight is provided not only in their home market, but also internationally through Foviance extensive alliance network.</p>
<p>Foviance engages with its customers wherever they are in their product lifecycle, and provides insight so they understand how to improve, create and deliver excellent customer experiences.</p>
<p>Foviance boasts 43 of the UK FTSE 100 companies among its client roster, including Barclays, BSkyB, and Sainsbury&#8217;s. In addition Foviance works with International brands such as Astra Zeneca, Dell and Nokia. For further information please visit: www.foviance.com</p>
<h2>For further information:</h2>
<p>Melanie Hesketh / Becky Cheers</p>
<p>Prompt Communications for Foviance</p>
<p>+44 208 8996 1638 / +44 208 8996 1636</p>
<p>Foviance@prompt-communications.com</p>
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		<title>Foviance Acquires Applied Insights &#8211; Press Release</title>
		<link>http://www.foviance.com/what-we-think/foviance-acquires-applied-insights-press-release/</link>
		<comments>http://www.foviance.com/what-we-think/foviance-acquires-applied-insights-press-release/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Nov 2008 16:32:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Charlotte Wilberforce</dc:creator>
		
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.foviance.com/?p=657</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Neil Mason joins Foviance as director of analytical consulting...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Foviance, the expert in digital customer experience, today announced the completion of its acquisition of Applied Insights, a leading provider of analytical consulting solutions to blue chip businesses. The acquisition will accelerate the development of Foviance&#8217;s technology agnostic analytics division and supports Foviance&#8217;s strategy to provide a comprehensive customer experience solution to its global customer base.</p>
<p>Neil Mason joins Foviance as director of analytical consulting.</p>
<p>The acquisition brings Applied Insight&#8217;s director and co-founder Neil Mason to the Foviance team as director of analytical consulting. With his vast experience, he will serve on Foviance&#8217;s board of directors and lead the company&#8217;s new initiative and analytical consulting practice. Mr. Mason is a renowned industry figure and brings Applied Insights best practices of predictive analytics, optimisation and measuring digital marketing effectiveness to Foviance. He also brings with him Applied Insights existing blue chip client base which includes Barclays, BP and Total Jobs and he will have a pivotal role in developing further Foviance&#8217;s strategic partners such as Omniture and Google.</p>
<p>Neil Mason joins Foviance with 25 years of in-depth industry experience in marketing analytics and strategy. Prior to founding Applied Insights, Mr. Mason has worked in a number of senior leadership roles for many major companies including QXL ricardo and Research International UK. He also currently serves on the board of directors of the Web Analytics Association, the global industry body for digital analytics professionals.</p>
<p>&#8220;The combination of Foviance&#8217;s expertise in delivering seamless cross-channel experiences with Applied Insight&#8217;s leadership in understanding data analytics, is ideal for our customers, both in providing innovative services and optimising usability and conversion rates&#8221; said <a title="Link to Paul Blunden" href="http://www.foviance.com/who-we-are/foviance-consultants/paul-blunden-ceo/" target="self ">Paul Blunden</a>, CEO, Foviance. &#8220;Our combined global customer base now has a partner with proven expertise to deliver a strong blend of business, analytical and technology consulting capabilities.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8220;Many e-businesses are looking to improve their online performance but are not clear about what they should be measuring or how to measure it effectively, our merger with Foviance presents us with an incredible opportunity to improve the digital usability experience for businesses globally&#8221;, said <a title="Link to Neil Mason" href="http://www.foviance.com/who-we-are/foviance-consultants/neil-mason-director-of-analytical-consulting/" target="self ">Neil Mason</a>, director of analytical consulting, Foviance.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.clickz.com/clickz_print&amp;id=3631618" target="_self">Execs &amp; Accounts UK &amp; EU: IAB U.K., MySpace, Foviance<br />
</a>By Jack Marshall , November 10, 2008</p>
<p><a href="http://weblog.milesbennett.co.uk/blog/_archives/2008/11/8/3967647.html" target="_self">Miles Bennett: </a>Applied Insights joins Foviance<br />
By Miles Bennett, November 8, 2008</p>
<p><a href="http://www.netimperative.com/news/2008/november/3rd/foviance-snaps-up-consulting-solutions-firm/?searchterm=foviance" target="_self">NetImperative.com</a> Foviance snaps up consulting solutions firm<br />
By Net Imperative, November 07, 2008</p>
<p><a href="http://www.mandadeals.co.uk/m-and-a-news/812102/foviance-gains-applied-insights.thtml" target="_self">M&amp;Adeals.co.uk</a> Foviance gains Applied Insights<br />
By Ryan Daff, November 07 2008</p>
<p><a href="http://www.liesdamnedlies.com/2008/11/applied-insights-falls-into-the-gaping-foviance-maw.html" target="_self">Liesdamedlies.com</a> Applied Insights falls into the gaping Foviance maw<br />
By Ian Thomas, November 07,2008</p>
<p><a href="http://www.research-live.com/news_story.aspx?pageid=30&amp;r=y&amp;newsid=5432" target="_self">Research-live.com</a> Usability consultancy Foviance acquites Applied Insights. By James Verrinder, November 06, 2008</p>
<p><a href="http://www.mrweb.com/drno/news9135.htm" target="_self">Mrweb.com </a>Foviance Buys Applied Insights.<br />
By www.drno.org &#8211; Daily Research News Online, part of www.mrweb.com, November 06, 2008</p>
<p><a href="http://www.growthbusiness.co.uk/deal-update/811857/foviance-acquires-applied-insights.thtml" target="_self">Growthbusiness.co.uk</a> Foviance Acquires Applied Insights<br />
By Growth Business, November 06, 2008</p>
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		<title>Recession looming: Analytics to the rescue?</title>
		<link>http://www.foviance.com/what-we-think/recession-looming-analytics-to-the-rescue/</link>
		<comments>http://www.foviance.com/what-we-think/recession-looming-analytics-to-the-rescue/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Sep 2008 14:16:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Neil Mason</dc:creator>
		
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.applied-insights.co.uk/news/2008/09/10/recession-looming-analytics-to-the-rescue/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<!--:en--><!--:-->]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This article, written by Neil Mason, was originally published on Clickz.com and is republished here with permission.<a href="http://www.clickz.com"><img class="alignleft" style="padding: 5px 0pt 0pt 0pt;" title="ClickZ logo" src="http://www.foviance.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/logo_clickz.gif" alt="ClickZ logo" width="192" height="57" /></a></p>
<p>Here in the UK recent statistics have confirmed that the economy has stopped expanding and that it&#8217;s possible that we may head into recession. We have had continuous economic growth for the last 16 years or so and so for many people operating in a recessionary environment is going to be new. If it&#8217;s like the last recession we had in 1991/1992 then it could be tough. So, when it comes to marketing there&#8217;s probably two ways that organisations and businesses might react.</p>
<p>The dumb way to react will be to slash sales and marketing costs across the board, batten down the hatches and hope to ride out the storm. Marketing services costs like investments in measurement, analytics and research will be some of the first causalities as they are seen as &#8220;discretionary&#8221; costs and not core to the business operations. Also each channel or division will take a similar hit.</p>
<p>The smart way to react will also be to reduce sales and marketing costs. After all, if you are selling less, you have to react accordingly to maintain profitability. However, the smart organisation will look at how they can significantly increase the efficiency and effectiveness of their marketing expenditure and what are the important activities and tools they need to be able to do that.</p>
<p>In a recessionary environment it may be that the online channel is a winner. Smart organisations will look to see how they can acquire or service customers more cheaply through the e-channel than through other channels. Even with the digital channels, I believe the marketing emphasis is likely to shift with three possible trends:</p>
<ul>
<li>An increased focus on multi-channel acquisition optimisation</li>
<li>Greater deployment of conversion optimisation tools and applications</li>
<li>Development of more robust and sophisticated retention marketing programmes</li>
</ul>
<p>As acquisition budgets come under pressure, digital marketers will need to focus on how they get more bang for their buck. Classic single channel optimisation techniques such as PPC bid optimisation will only work to a certain extent as all organisations will be looking to improve channel productivity. However single channel optimisation will essentially remain sub-optimal. Smart organisations will allow investment into the tools and analytics necessary to understand how to optimise budgets across digital acquisition channels such as display, affiliates and PPC. They will ensure that they have improved attribution models that enable them to understand how channels work alongside each other (or not) and which channels are delivering value. They will also ensure that they are able to reduce the costs of Cost Per Acquisition (CPA) programmes not only through better channel optimisation but also through correct attribution of sales or conversions to the correct channel. To do this, organisations will need to look at how they collect, manage and analyse their campaign related data. Joined up marketing is difficult to achieve without joined up data. They will also need to have the right tools and skills sets to allow them to analyse that data to understand that data. Improved effectiveness will come from improved analytics.</p>
<p>Having persuaded someone to visit the website, the trick is to get them to do something of value. Conversion optimisation has come of age in the past couple of years but is still a nascent practice in many organisations. To leverage the investments in acquisition, organisations will need to ensure that conversion rates increase. Site designs need to continue to improve and the customer experience enhanced. To do this will require a greater understanding of what&#8217;s working and what isn&#8217;t. Good site tracking will be vital not optional. Also testing and experimental tools as well as behavioural targeting platforms can be viewed as investments that have a measurable ROI. Therefore despite a potential squeeze on budgets these types of capabilities can pay for themselves inj a relatively short period of time if they are deployed correctly. Organisations should look to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of their processes and procedures around the tools to save money rather than reduce the investments in the tools themselves.</p>
<p>Finally, the other trend will be the development of more robust and accountable retention marketing programmes. I often think of the digital world as a &#8220;world of ones&#8221;. Most people who visit your website only ever visit it once. A lot of them only ever look at one page or stay for one minute. If they convert, they only do that once. Most of the challenge in digital marketing seems to be to get people to do something twice. Visit twice; make the second click; place the second order and so on.</p>
<p>The classic saying is that it&#8217;s far cheaper to retain a customer than to acquire a new one. In recessionary times it makes sense then to focus on extracting more value from the investments already make in customer acquisition and conversion than spending more on the same. For me the definition of retention marketing is the process of converting someone twice or more without paying the costs of acquisition and conversion twice. At the point of initial conversion there is usually an exchange of value. You sell them something; they tell you their name and address. They download something, you get their email address. You also know what they bought or downloaded and so that insight forms the basis of improving their propensity to transact with you again with relevant communication at the right time. Using tools and techniques such as segmentation and predictive analytics will help with both relevancy and timeliness.</p>
<p>If there are stormy waters ahead what are you going to do? Batten down the hatches and hope for the best? Or invest in the right navigation equipment, learn how to use it and plot the smoothest possible course to keep ahead of the pack?</p>
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		<title>Seeing&#8230; or not seeing</title>
		<link>http://www.foviance.com/what-we-think/seeing-or-not-seeing/</link>
		<comments>http://www.foviance.com/what-we-think/seeing-or-not-seeing/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 Aug 2008 09:43:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Neil Mason</dc:creator>
		
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.applied-insights.co.uk/news/2008/08/30/seeing-%e2%80%a6-or-not-seeing/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When we think about how to evaluate a predictive model the first thing we typically think of is how accurately does that model predict against the (unseen) test data...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>This post originally appeared on Applied Insights&#8217; blog. Foviance acquired Applied Insights in November 2008, with Neil Mason joining us as Director of <a title="Predictive analytics and web analytics consulting" href="/what-we-do/web-analytics-consulting/">Analytical Consulting</a>. As part of this acquisition, we&#8217;ve incorporated Applied Insights&#8217; blog into our own.</p></blockquote>
<p>When we think about how to evaluate a predictive model the first thing we typically think of is how accurately does that model predict against the (unseen) test data. More often than not though when we develop models our business/research customers want more than that. They want to know how the algorithm got to the predictions i.e. they want to understand the model.</p>
<p>The more transparent predictive methods don&#8217;t just predict they also reveal the patterns that underlie them. The two main benefits of this are that</p>
<ol>
<li>Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) typically on the business/research side &#8211; can assess the model&#8217;s validity by viewing these patterns, for example as rules or formulae. This way they can see if the inherent relationships make sense. Do they see any potential anomalies in the data that we didn&#8217;t pick up when we previously explored it?</li>
<li>And of course the patterns themselves may reveal useful insights. We often find specific segments of interest; demographic groups who have a higher propensity to convert through a given channel, or re-purchasers who have short, but potentially interesting and valuable, buying cycles.</li>
</ol>
<p>The bottom line is that when we can see what a model is doing we can glean much more from it than the likelihood that the outcome of interest (convert, attrite, default, etc.) will happen.</p>
<p>To be frank most of our projects are like this. This is where Decision Tree methods often win out because the output let&#8217;s us visually explore the data to both understand the model and to examine other potential patterns of interest. They may not necessarily give us the most accurate predictions but often the SMEs care more about understanding than predicting. This is a classic trade-off in PA.</p>
<p>There are exceptions to this. The alternative view is that accuracy is paramount and it could be that the winning model is opaque. Neural Network models are a case in point. Depending on the software you are using you might see a ranked list of fields which contribute to the prediction along with the prediction itself and perhaps an associated confidence level. Even if the final network is displayed it doesn&#8217;t necessarily explain much more.</p>
<p>For the most part these are the two most typical scenarios however we are currently designing a 3<sup>rd</sup> type &#8211; where opaqueness is the main objective (together with an acceptable level of predictive accuracy of course). We&#8217;re talking to a government department who don&#8217;t want to have to send sensitive data out and who don&#8217;t want our models to reveal any of that information either. So the gist of our approach is that we&#8217;ll develop black-box models on our data and let them deploy them on their database. They&#8217;ll give us addresses and predictive scores in return but in so doing we won&#8217;t know why a particular address was selected.</p>
<p>Anyone living in the UK will understand the political backdrop to this as there have been various high profile cases of data going AWOL (<a href="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/crime/article4583747.ece">here is the latest one</a>). We are hoping that a somewhat unorthodox application of Predictive Analytics might help the UK government provide a valuable public service without further compromising the confidentiality of its citizens. There&#8217;s many a slip twixt the cup and the lip mind you &#8211; we&#8217;ll keep you posted&#8230;</p>
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		<title>Announcing the launch of our YouTube channel</title>
		<link>http://www.foviance.com/what-we-think/announcing-the-launch-of-our-youtube-channel/</link>
		<comments>http://www.foviance.com/what-we-think/announcing-the-launch-of-our-youtube-channel/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Jun 2008 21:19:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Neil Mason</dc:creator>
		
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.applied-insights.co.uk/news/2008/06/17/announcing-the-launch-of-our-youtube-channel/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Applied Insights have launched themselves into the 21st century and have set up a YouTube channel...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>This post originally appeared on Applied Insights&#8217; blog. Foviance acquired Applied Insights in November 2008, with Neil Mason joining us as Director of <a title="Predictive analytics and web analytics consulting" href="/what-we-do/web-analytics-consulting/">Analytical Consulting</a>. As part of this acquisition, we&#8217;ve incorporated Applied Insights&#8217; blog into our own.</p></blockquote>
<p>Applied Insights have launched themselves into the 21<sup>st</sup> century and have set up a YouTube channel. You can find it here:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.youtube.com/appliedinsights">www.youtube.com/appliedinsights</a></p>
<p>So far we have some video blogs up there from the recent Emetrics conferences in San Francisco and London. Over time we will be adding to that with discussions and video seminars on various topics to do with digital marketing and predictive analytics, or even digital marketing predictive analytics!</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s a sample which is Neil catching up with Avinash Kaushik towards the end of Emetrics San Francisco 2008.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMHsz3alHjs">www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMHsz3alHjs</a></p>
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		<title>Report from Emetrics San Francisco</title>
		<link>http://www.foviance.com/what-we-think/report-from-emetrics-san-francisco/</link>
		<comments>http://www.foviance.com/what-we-think/report-from-emetrics-san-francisco/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 May 2008 14:55:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Neil Mason</dc:creator>
		
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.applied-insights.co.uk/news/2008/06/20/report-from-emetrics-san-francisco/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As I write this I'm on my way back to the UK from the Emetrics Marketing Optimisation summit in San Francisco. After three days and having watched about 15 presentations this is probably the first chance I have had to reflect on what I've seen and what I have learned...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This article, written by Neil Mason, was originally published on Clickz.com and is republished here with permission.<a href="http://www.clickz.com"><img class="alignleft" style="padding: 5px 0pt 0pt 0pt;" title="ClickZ logo" src="http://www.foviance.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/logo_clickz.gif" alt="ClickZ logo" width="192" height="57" /></a></p>
<p>As I write this I&#8217;m on my way back to the UK from the Emetrics Marketing Optimisation summit in San Francisco. After three days and having watched about 15 presentations this is probably the first chance I have had to reflect on what I&#8217;ve seen and what I have learned. The first thing that strikes me was the breadth of content that was covered. I went to presentations ranging from the &#8220;emetrics ecosystem&#8221; to usability and from testing and experimentation to social media measurement. The second thing that stuck me was the quality of the material and the presenters. In a show like this it&#8217;s possible to hit a duff presentation or two but looking back at my notes, all the sessions I attended were spot on.</p>
<p>So what did I take out of the conference? One theme that came through was there was a lot more evidence of organisations using integrated measurement strategies than I have seen before. More organisations were showing how they use a wide array of tools and techniques to understand the effectiveness of their digital marketing programmes. Voice of the Customer methodologies such as onsite feedback and surveys are the norm, most people are using testing and experimentation approaches and the use data mining and predictive analytical techniques is on the increase. Text mining tools are being used on verbatim comments from onsite surveys to extract the core essence of what is being said.</p>
<p>The stage was set on the first day with a keynote presentation &#8220;Competing with Analytics&#8221; from author Tom Davenport. There were some interesting things that Davenport said that set the tone for the conference. &#8220;The planets are aligned for analytics&#8221; he said, meaning that all the necessary components for organisations to adopt and deploy analytical capabilities are being put in place: Data, Enterprise, Leadership, Targets and Analysts. &#8220;Using analysis is good, competing on analysis is better&#8221; summed up the need to be able to move from insight to action. There is no point knowing stuff if you don&#8217;t do anything about it. He described the five stages of an organisations analytics capability from being &#8220;Analytical impaired&#8221; at the low end of the scale to being &#8220;Analytical competitors&#8221; at the other end. Organisations such as Harrahs and Marriott ion the US and Tesco in the UK use analytics as a source of competitive advantage.</p>
<p>Another stand out presentation was from Tim Goudie from The Coca Cola Company. Tim described Coke&#8217;s journey from the early implementation of their web analytics platform through to the development of their whole measurement framework. Goudie told us that &#8220;Metrics are ridiculously political; there is no such thing as a neutral metric&#8221;. Once you begin to measure things, then your are likely to start to change behaviour.</p>
<p>Other sessions I attended confirmed my belief that measuring and understanding the impact of social media is still in its infancy. Metrics and measurement frameworks are still in development, debates still stage about the meanings of terms like &#8220;engagement&#8221; and so on. Fellow columnist Jason Burby reminded us that when it comes to social media measurement of the importance of defining what success looks like in terms of key behaviours and that whilst the activities may be different the underlying measurement processes are the same.</p>
<p>A great take out from the presentation by Ebay was the use of &#8220;home visits&#8221; to better understand the user experience. I have seen this technique used by consumer packaged goods companies where people from the company visit consumers in their own homes to see them, using their products in real life. This was the first time that I had heard of this approached being used by an internet company. Executives from Ebay would visit users in their homes to understand the context within which the site is being used, revealing more insight into what really goes on than a standard usability test would.<em><br />
</em></p>
<p>Jacob Nielsen though showed what you can get out of usability testing in the laboratory. He asserts from the many tests they&#8217;ve completed over the years that task completion rates are going up and stressed the value of using testing early on in the development process. Oh and by the way &#8220;most people tend to ignore junk on websites&#8221;.</p>
<p>So this industry is now more than just what comes out of a web analytics tool. It&#8217;s about having a range of tools and technologies embedded within strong business processes. As Avinash Kaushik told us it&#8217;s about &#8220;multiplicity, flexibility and agility&#8221;. The planets are indeed aligned for analytics.</p>
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		<title>Report from the Frontline: Emetrics San Francisco</title>
		<link>http://www.foviance.com/what-we-think/report-from-the-frontline-emetrics-san-francisco/</link>
		<comments>http://www.foviance.com/what-we-think/report-from-the-frontline-emetrics-san-francisco/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 May 2008 20:04:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Neil Mason</dc:creator>
		
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.applied-insights.co.uk/news/2008/05/14/report-from-the-frontline-emetrics-san-francisco/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last week I went to the Emetrics Marketing Optimisation Summit in San Francisco. You can read about my impressions of the conference over at my column at ClickZ and also watch a series of video blogs over at the Applied Insights channel on YouTube...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>This post originally appeared on Applied Insights&#8217; blog. Foviance acquired Applied Insights in November 2008, with Neil Mason joining us as Director of <a title="Predictive analytics and web analytics consulting" href="/what-we-do/web-analytics-consulting/">Analytical Consulting</a>. As part of this acquisition, we&#8217;ve incorporated Applied Insights&#8217; blog into our own.</p></blockquote>
<p>Last week I went to the Emetrics Marketing Optimisation Summit in San Francisco. You can read about my impressions of the conference over at my column at <a href="http://www.clickz.com/showPage.html?page=3629459">ClickZ</a> and also watch a series of video blogs over at the <a href="http://www.youtube.com/AppliedInsights">Applied Insights channel on YouTube</a>.</p>
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